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 forecast Out look and Forecast 2007



As we are taking inventory of 2006 and putting the year behind us, it is noteworthy that the residential real estate for the 2nd ˝ of the year was down 12.5% . We believe that the real estate woes are just beginning, with foreclosures increasing, 2007 will only see a further slide.


However, we have to remember how strong the US major city’s real estate is, and some might say the over heated the housing market was in the 2005 in terms of sales and investor demand will correct itself and the market.


Last year showed a big drop as a whole but to a level that frankly is still reasonably active when you compare statistics. We at MAS suggest that condos in all the major cities in the US may be starting to recover. NYC has showed a good solid demand for condo in December.

MAS economists and consultants predict that sales will continue to fall in January, February and March, with the worst still to come as markets are inundated with foreclosures.


Our President and CEO Mr. Kambiz Merabi feels comfortable with the indicator’s showing inflation has been contained at under 3% (Dec 2.54% ,Nov 1.97% ,Oct 1,31%) in last three months, which has the effect on the Federal Reserve not to raise the interest rate .The interest rate set the trend in our industries.

I believe that even if underlying inflation is coming down, it is still unacceptably high. Real estate has a direct effect on the interest rate, and I feel the Fed will not increase the rate this year at all. The foreign commercial real estate investors still like to invest in the best markets, i.e.

NY is #1, DC #2, LA #3 ,San Francisco #4 and Chicago ,Miami,. Research done in October by the Center of Real Estate at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, found foreign investors desired to invest in US RE despite macro uncertainty.

I believe that most foreign investors understand the NY and LA market a lot better than the rest of the residents of the US do. So start looking and find your RE investment. My office in LA is expanding and we are very optimistic in 2007 that the correction would be a minor one. We are building more condos and our project #1 will be ready to hit the market by April, and our project #2 will break ground by the end of the summer.

Looking forward for all your comments as always.


Kambiz Merabi
01-22-07

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