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Merabi & Sons Overview, and the forecasts for 2008 (Looking a Bit Cloudy):

Everybody from Boston to San Diego are asking what is going on with Real estate?

Well, we at MAS believe when your shoemaker , your mom, your doctor, your dry cleaner all started to invest in real estate with no knowledge or little about the real estate and the banks irrationally lending money at 120% of loan to value of the real estate they purchased , this is what you get – the puzzling direction that over which way the real estate market is headed. Up or down? Bubble or not? Correction or not ?crash or not?

It's a debate that's been raging ever since June 2007 and recently that there have been  clear signs of a slowdown. It's unlikely, however, that the housing market gets better ,we believe that the worst is yet to come late 2008 or after the election. Therefore we are not investing in any kind of residential for 2008 and perhaps the first quarter of 2009.

However two month ago on October 24, 2007.

According to Grubb & Ellis during a morning news conference in New York City, the slowing economy should cool down the U.S. commercial real estate market in 2008, but the four main real estate sectors should remain relatively healthy next year. (according to Michael Dee, Grubb & Ellis' senior vice president.) in the residential sector we at MAS disagree with him. Nationally, the overall outlook seems reasonable: 7 percent appreciation for 2006 and flat for 2007. But markets that have seen the greatest appreciation over the past five years appear to be vulnerable. Indeed, at some point in the next two years, a third of the nation's 100 largest metro areas (accounting for 60 percent of the U.S. population) are expected to see modestly falling house prices. Real estate bear markets often come in the form of steady declines over many years, rather than sudden sharp drops.

On the positive side, office development has been under control according to Bach. Net office absorption should remain positive-about 48 million square feet in 2008, off by about 20 percent from 2007. Bach predicts office vacancy by the end of next year should be 13 percent, about the same level as this year. Office Vacancy was lowest in Manhattan at 4.9 percent and highest in Detroit at 21.7 percent among the major markets tracked in detail, Vacancy rose most sharply in Orange County, Palm Beach County and the Inland Empire (the Riverside area east of Los Angeles), all of which have a high percentage of office tenants related to the weak housing sector , according to Grubb & Ellis. We at MAS , believe that real estate commercial office building would slow down but it would not crash like the construction and housing would do, therefore we are investing in commercial office buildings in AAA areas.
Retail leasing rates should stabilize in 2008 While leasing at regional malls should continue to remain strong. Also some strip centers may see some increase in vacancy. Retailers that are dependent on the housing sector, such as home furnishings stores, could see slowing sales. We are very optimistic about retail and are looking to invest in malls and strip centers.


That is what we are looking for in residential market or new construction BARGAIN.

All of our thought and predictions above means that the health and direction of the REAL ESTATE in the US market matters not only to firms directly in the REAL ESTATE market, but also to the overall economic health of the united states of America .
Kambiz. Merabi LA

Merabi and Sons, the premiere Real Estate Company in the world.


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